Transforming Indian Gold and Silver Market in World Geopolitical Tension: An Analytical Study

Abstract

Over the past half-decade, gold and silver prices have experienced a super bull run. Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, the Middle East crisis, the continuously increasing demand for gold from central banks worldwide, and the increasing demand for silver from the industrial sector are the reasons for increasing gold and silver prices. In addition, during the past decade, many investors have diversified their investments in physical gold and silver to Exchange Traded Funds-ETFs. All these factors have led to unprecedented price levels. The present study analyzes the rising trends of gold and silver prices using secondary data collected from reliable financial sources such as the RBI, Economic Survey of India, World Gold Council, and Silver Institute from 2000 to February 4, 2026. Statistical analysis was conducted using Excel and SPSS, applying Mean, Standard Deviation, CAGR, percentage of change, and Spearman’s rho correlation methods. The results indicate a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate, gold, and silver prices from 2000 to February 4, 2026. The Pearson correlation coefficient between gold and silver is 0.954 at significance (p-value)0.000 level, which indicates a very strong positive correlation between gold and silver prices. In addition, from 2020 to February 4, 2026, the CAGR of gold prices has grown 26.32 percent and silver prices has grown 15.38 percent. During the period, the exchange rate between the U.S. The Dollar and Indian Rupee have reached 74.22 rupees to 90.44 rupees per Dollar. As well as the study explains that some positive and adverse impact on gold and silver market, industry, consumers and investors in India.The study concludes that during the study period gold and silver prices are increased but silver prices are more fluctuate compare to gold prices. However, both precious metals remain important investment assets during periods of economic uncertainty and inflation.