A Data-Driven Framework to Anticipate Urban Flooding in Mumbai Using Verified Hydrological and Land-Use Indicators

Abstract

Mumbai’s recent monsoon seasons, including several events in 2025, have shown how short intense spells of rain can quickly disrupt the city, especially in low-lying and densely built areas. Many earlier studies discuss heavy rainfall, terrain and land-use change, but usually treat them separately, which makes it difficult to get a clear, citywide view of flood susceptibility. This paper presents a data-driven framework that combines three sets of routinely available information: daily rainfall from the Colaba and Santacruz IMD stations, elevation and slope derived from a digital elevation model, and land-use patterns indicating where surfaces are mostly built-up or permeable. From these datasets, basic indicators of rainfall stress, terrain setting and surface response are created and examined together. Looking at these indicators in combination helps to identify locations where intense rain, low ground levels and hard urban surfaces overlap. The framework brings out existing hotspots and helps identify places where vulnerability may be increasing. The framework offers a practical basis for ward-level preparedness and can be updated annually as new rainfall and land-use datasets become available.